oscar predictions of 2012

I made the follow predictions on the podcast The Lost Dial recorded hours after the nominations were announced on January 24th. You can listen to my predictions in part 1 and part 2. While I might feel a bit differently on possible winners since a few more awards have been given out (SAG, DAG, etc), here are my initial predictions and runner ups. As always, follow me on Twitter while I live-tweet the ceremony on February 26.

My official predictions are in bold. My runner up guesses are underlined. If you compare what I said during the podcast to what’s written below, the only
thing I may have changed are my runner ups… which doesn’t matter if they don’t win anyway since there are no 2nd place Oscars. Also, during the podcast I didn’t have time to research nominees I wasn’t familiar with, like documentaries and shorts. So those predictions are based on previous wins, nominations and ratings according to IMDb.com.

1. Best Picture:

• The Artist
• The Descendants
• Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
• The Help
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• Moneyball
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

2. Actor:

• Demián Bichir – A Better Life
• George Clooney – The Descendants
• Jean Dujardin – The Artist
• Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt – Moneyball

(After much Oscar buzz for the following, I was a bit surprised there was no nominations for Ryan Gosling – Drive / The Ides of March, no Leonardo DiCaprio – J Edgar, or no Michael Fassbender – Shame)

3. Actress:

• Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis – The Help
• Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

4. Supporting Actor:

• Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
• Jonah Hill – Moneyball
• Nick Nolte – Warrior
• Christopher Plummer – Beginners
• Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

(Another surprising snub after all the Oscar buzz was no nod for Albert Brooks – Drive)

5. Supporting Actress:

• Bérénice Bejo – The Artist
• Jessica Chastain – The Help
• Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
• Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
• Octavia Spencer – The Help

6. Directing:

• Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
• Alexander Payne – The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese – Hugo
• Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
• Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

(No David Fincher for Dragon Tattoo, No Tate Taylor for The Help)

7. Foreign Language Film:

• Bullhead – Belgium
• Footnote – Israel
• In Darkness – Poland
• Monsieur Lazhar – Canada
• A Separation – Iran

8. Adapted Screenplay:

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash – The Descendants
• John Logan – Hugo
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon – The Ides of March
• Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin – Moneyball
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

9. Original Screenplay:

• Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
• Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig – Bridesmaids
• J.C. Chandor – Margin Call
• Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
• Asghar Farhadi – A Separation

10. Animated Feature Film:

• A Cat in Paris
• Chico & Rita
• Kung Fu Panda 2
• Puss in Boots
• Rango

11. Art Direction:

• The Artist
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• War Horse

12. Cinematography:

• The Artist
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

13. Sound Mixing:

• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Moneyball
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• War Horse

14. Sound Editing:

• Drive
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• War Horse

15. Original Score:

• The Adventures of Tintin – John Williams
• The Artist – Ludovic Bource
• Hugo – Howard Shore
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Alberto Iglesias
• War Horse – John Williams

16. Original Song:

• “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets – Bret McKenzie
• “Real in Rio” from Rio – Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett

17. Costume:

• Anonymous
• The Artist
• Hugo
• Jane Eyre
• W.E.

18. Documentary Feature:

• Hell and Back Again
• If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
• Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
• Pina
• Undefeated

19. Documentary (short subject):

• The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
• God Is the Bigger Elvis
• Incident in New Baghdad
• Saving Face
• The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

20. Film Editing: (I haven’t seen any of these, so it’s a complete guess)

• The Artist
• The Descendants
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Moneyball

21. Makeup:

• Albert Nobbs
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
• The Iron Lady

22. Animated Short Film:

• Dimanche/Sunday
• The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
• La Luna
• A Morning Stroll
• Wild Life

23. Live Action Short Film:

• Pentecost
• Raju
• The Shore
• Time Freak
• Tuba Atlantic

24. Visual Effects:

• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
• Hugo
• Real Steel
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon