‘Tis Oscar season once again. Actually, it has been for a couple months now, but the race for Hollywood’s biggest night (March 7th) officially started February 2nd when the nominations were announced. Every year I like to play along with other “movie geeks” and predict who will win this year. I tend to side with my favorite magazine, Entertainment Weekly, but this year I wanted to see if I could make my own predictions. But if I were a bettin’ man, I think if I chose whatever EW predicted, I’d probably win 90% of the time. It’s all in fun and I usually have two choices anyway: who will probably win, and who I want to win. The trick is to follow the nominations and results from other awards like the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice and even early buzz from film festivals like those held at Sundance or Toronto.
Rather than give you the complete list of nominations, I’ll just give you the big top five categories and my pick. You can see the rest of the list here. As you can see, Best Picture has been expanded to 10 nods this year. It’s an honor just to be nominated, ya know.
- Avatar (Chances are very high, but I will say no gold)
- The Blind Side (A filler choice, probably good film)
- District 9 (I would like this to win, but no deal)
- An Education (Little movie, fat chance)
- The Hurt Locker (Underdog of the season, for the win)
- Inglorious Basterds (It’ll be cool for this to win, but I doubt it will)
- Precious (This would be a deserved surprise, but probably not)
- A Serious Man (I hear good things about this, but I don’t hear win)
- Up (I’m all for this, but seems unlikely)
- Up in the Air (A lot of buzz, but probably no deal)
- Jeff Bridges—Crazy Heart (He was the Globe, SAG… he’ll get this probably win)
- George Clooney—Up in the Air (He’s a favorite, maybe a close second)
- Colin Firth—A Single Man (A great actor, but not this year)
- Morgan Freeman—Invictus (I love this guy, but not this year)
- Jeremy Renner—The Hurt Locker (Could be a surprise, probably a miss)
- Sandra Bullock—The Blind Side (She’s got this one for sure)
- Helen Mirren—The Last Station
- Carey Mulligan—An Education
- Gabourey Sidibe—Precious (It’ll be awesome if she won, but I doubt she will)
- Meryl Streep—Julie & Julia (She’s going for a record win, she’s tough competition)
- Kathryn Bigelow—The Hurt Locker (For the win)
- James Cameron—Avatar (He did good, and he might pull an upset)
- Lee Daniels—Precious (An honor to be nominated, a surprise to win)
- Jason Reitman—Up in the Air
- Quentin Tarantino—Inglorious Basterds (I would be happy if he won, probably not)
Some other nominations include the following: Mo’Nique (Precious) will more than likely win Best Supporting Actress. Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds) has won other Best Supporting Actor awards for this movie, he’ll probably win this one too. Up is probably the best choice for Best Animated Film. I really like District 9, but I think Up in the Air might take Best Adapted Screenplay. And I can’t make up my mind with Best Original Screenplay, I like Up, but Inglorious Basterds could win and I would be happy with that too.
For some fun and an experiment for movie reviews, here are a few nominated films I’ve seen in haiku form. Enjoy.
Aliens are here
Unequal and unwanted.
Rewriting history nicely,
A bit dry, still good.
Flying high story,
Amazing, very funny–
Pixar for the win!
Fantastic new world,
Three hours yet not boring.
Great, but not the best.
Stars, spaceships and fun
Where no one has gone before!
…At least in 0-9.
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”
Poor excuse for a story,
It’s pure eye candy.
She’s a brave wee girl
Discovers a brave new world
Really, it’s scary.
[…] Many of the winners I predicted had one. Many didn’t. I didn’t feature a full list here, but I did cast my votes of the bigger categories. I didn’t make a prediction for some of the others until either before the winners were announced, or I didn’t vote at all. To be fair, I counted the ones I didn’t vote for as a missed answer. So ultimately, I predicted 15 out of 24 correctly. (Major award predictions here.) […]