oscar predictions of 2012

I made the follow predictions on the podcast The Lost Dial recorded hours after the nominations were announced on January 24th. You can listen to my predictions in part 1 and part 2. While I might feel a bit differently on possible winners since a few more awards have been given out (SAG, DAG, etc), here are my initial predictions and runner ups. As always, follow me on Twitter while I live-tweet the ceremony on February 26.

My official predictions are in bold. My runner up guesses are underlined. If you compare what I said during the podcast to what’s written below, the only
thing I may have changed are my runner ups… which doesn’t matter if they don’t win anyway since there are no 2nd place Oscars. Also, during the podcast I didn’t have time to research nominees I wasn’t familiar with, like documentaries and shorts. So those predictions are based on previous wins, nominations and ratings according to IMDb.com.

1. Best Picture:

  • The Artist
  • The Descendants
  • Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
  • The Help
  • Hugo
  • Midnight in Paris
  • Moneyball
  • The Tree of Life
  • War Horse

2. Actor:

  • Demián Bichir – A Better Life
  • George Clooney – The Descendants
  • Jean Dujardin – The Artist
  • Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  • Brad Pitt – Moneyball

(After much Oscar buzz for the following, I was a bit surprised there was no nominations for Ryan Gosling – Drive / The Ides of March, no Leonardo DiCaprio – J Edgar, or no Michael Fassbender – Shame)

3. Actress:

  • Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
  • Viola Davis – The Help
  • Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
  • Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

4. Supporting Actor:

  • Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
  • Jonah Hill – Moneyball
  • Nick Nolte – Warrior
  • Christopher Plummer – Beginners
  • Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

(Another surprising snub after all the Oscar buzz was no nod for Albert Brooks – Drive)

5. Supporting Actress:

  • Bérénice Bejo – The Artist
  • Jessica Chastain – The Help
  • Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
  • Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
  • Octavia Spencer – The Help

6. Directing:

  • Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
  • Alexander Payne – The Descendants
  • Martin Scorsese – Hugo
  • Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

(No David Fincher for Dragon Tattoo, No Tate Taylor for The Help)

7. Foreign Language Film:

  • Bullhead – Belgium
  • Footnote – Israel
  • In Darkness – Poland
  • Monsieur Lazhar – Canada
  • A Separation – Iran

8. Adapted Screenplay:

  • Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash – The Descendants
  • John Logan – Hugo
  • George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon – The Ides of March
  • Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin – Moneyball
  • Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

9. Original Screenplay:

  • Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
  • Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig – Bridesmaids
  • J.C. Chandor – Margin Call
  • Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
  • Asghar Farhadi – A Separation

10. Animated Feature Film:

  • A Cat in Paris
  • Chico & Rita
  • Kung Fu Panda 2
  • Puss in Boots
  • Rango

11. Art Direction:

  • The Artist
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
  • Hugo
  • Midnight in Paris
  • War Horse

12. Cinematography:

  • The Artist
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • The Tree of Life
  • War Horse

13. Sound Mixing:

  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • Moneyball
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • War Horse

14. Sound Editing:

  • Drive
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • War Horse

15. Original Score:

  • The Adventures of Tintin – John Williams
  • The Artist – Ludovic Bource
  • Hugo – Howard Shore
  • Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Alberto Iglesias
  • War Horse – John Williams

16. Original Song:

  • “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets – Bret McKenzie
  • “Real in Rio” from Rio – Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett

17. Costume:

  • Anonymous
  • The Artist
  • Hugo
  • Jane Eyre
  • W.E.

18. Documentary Feature:

  • Hell and Back Again
  • If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
  • Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
  • Pina
  • Undefeated

19. Documentary (short subject):

  • The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
  • God Is the Bigger Elvis
  • Incident in New Baghdad
  • Saving Face
  • The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

20. Film Editing: (I haven’t seen any of these, so it’s a complete guess)

  • The Artist
  • The Descendants
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • Moneyball

21. Makeup:

  • Albert Nobbs
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
  • The Iron Lady

22. Animated Short Film:

  • Dimanche/Sunday
  • The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
  • La Luna
  • A Morning Stroll
  • Wild Life

23. Live Action Short Film:

  • Pentecost
  • Raju
  • The Shore
  • Time Freak
  • Tuba Atlantic

24. Visual Effects:

  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
  • Hugo
  • Real Steel
  • Rise of the Planet of the Apes
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon
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